Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 137.144895 164.227242 197.253293 241.161315 299.048168 3.743010e+02 4.822128e+02
2025-03-09 100.989247 130.885656 171.619337 233.226317 328.000726 4.758236e+02 7.415347e+02
2025-03-16 80.534889 109.904012 153.003554 224.395518 347.702572 5.705441e+02 1.060684e+03
2025-03-23 73.098779 104.639336 154.292013 244.260084 419.538282 7.928551e+02 1.846839e+03
2025-03-30 64.659675 95.764502 147.289300 247.169924 461.168120 9.847843e+02 2.855622e+03
2025-04-06 59.124872 90.321205 144.484627 256.447368 520.071889 1.267032e+03 4.797003e+03
2025-04-13 52.996832 82.782230 136.295919 252.353859 546.362327 1.486239e+03 7.244687e+03
2025-04-20 50.857665 81.763629 139.837286 274.182563 651.173907 2.094361e+03 1.601970e+04
2025-04-27 48.587940 80.103971 141.719503 292.878168 760.368794 2.915268e+03 4.032966e+04
2025-05-04 46.181605 77.803642 141.800073 307.259355 867.503467 3.983678e+03 1.239474e+05
2025-05-11 43.626381 74.847935 139.914180 315.978144 962.859349 5.286695e+03 5.323496e+05
2025-05-18 40.958914 71.324164 136.154690 318.426067 1037.384471 6.748843e+03 4.757888e+06
2025-05-25 37.745532 66.476675 128.965928 309.969062 1065.686941 8.029018e+03 9.323519e+08
2025-06-01 34.932365 62.171411 122.448801 302.033582 1094.287841 9.604888e+03 NaN
2025-06-08 32.252941 57.867854 115.313771 290.273102 1096.844723 1.096749e+04 NaN
2025-06-15 31.842282 58.336746 119.862860 318.536062 1352.448983 2.026473e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 30.328096 56.229637 117.600054 322.715470 1472.744192 2.947530e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 29.314545 55.121693 117.748170 335.972194 1679.534732 5.123875e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 27.666756 52.416434 113.253911 330.121070 1737.623426 6.970297e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 27.434750 52.930775 117.594806 361.464401 2175.040898 2.107839e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 27.000660 52.922142 120.493864 388.559980 2657.921737 8.947897e+05 NaN
2025-07-27 26.376321 52.390754 121.805000 409.555154 3152.869227 7.956624e+06 NaN
2025-08-03 25.565715 51.324050 121.359161 422.346807 3600.943937 2.309616e+09 NaN